December 9

At the age of 69, Sir Alex Ferguson is manager of the most successful and well known football club in the world, Manchester United. For 24 years he has been in charge of a group of highly egotistical multi-millionaires, while other football club managers have come and gone faster than a revolving door at a brothel.

“What you have to understand,” explained Sir Alex, a canny old Glaswegian, “is that the most important man at Manchester United is the manager.”

He was reflecting, in a television interview recently, on the bizarre week in mid-October that began with his star striker Wayne Rooney saying he wanted to leave the club and ended with Rooney signing a new five-year contract. In case there was any doubt who he was referring to, Ferguson added calmly: “I am the most important man at Manchester United – it has to be that way.” By the way, Rooney’s wage is reported to be a little over R2 million a week.

In South Africa we fire the coach when a team’s not doing well. In Britain they fire the manager.

You might wonder what base information is used in all this hiring and firing. Was Sven unlucky to be dismissed from Manchester City? Did Mick McCarthy survive on borrowed time at Sunderland?

Well, researchers at Reading University have come up with a model that could well provide an accurate way of determining when a manager should be sacked.

The model, conceived by a team from the university’s business school, crucially evaluates the managers’ performance on their genuine ability to get the best out of the team. It shows managers’ points per game performance, when factors beyond their control such as transfer spending, wages and the absence of players are taken out of the equation.

The researchers used a statistical technique, called ‘bootstrapping’, which has been used in the world of finance to evaluate the ability of mutual fund managers to outperform the markets, but in this case allows researchers to assess the performance of football managers on their ability alone. The technique compares the actual performance of managers over a period of time compared to a model that predicts a range of outcomes of what a team’s performance should have been. The real manager’s performance can then be compared to see if his team has performed significantly better or worse in real life as a result of his intervention.

The researchers employed match results and data from seasons 2004/05 to 2008/09 and the results echo the views of football experts. David Moyes was widely regarded to be over-performing in his role as Everton manager given the resources at his disposal. The research demonstrates that during the sample period, Moyes scored on average 0.54 points per game more than the 1.02 points per game expected which, over the course of a Premier League season, suggests Moyes’ influence made the difference between Everton pushing for a place in the Champions League and fighting a relegation battle.

The model also argues several managers were, based on match performances, sacked unjustifiably during the period. Sven-Göran Eriksson’s contract was terminated by Manchester City at the end of the 2007/08 season even though evidence shows he outperformed 95% of results forecast in the researchers’ model that ignored managerial influence, and thus was performing significantly above expectations.

The model also identifies several managers who were performing significantly worse than expected before they were eventually dismissed – for instance, Mick McCarthy during his spell at Sunderland and Adrian Boothroyd while at Watford.

The researchers conclude that, using their model, it could be possible to show that managers who are performing significantly below expectations after just 10 games are unlikely to improve their performance, and it might be best for the club to remove them sooner rather than later. On the other hand, managers who are only somewhat disappointing, rather than significantly underperforming, should be given more time to develop their teams.

The authors said: “In 2009, only six of the English Premier League’s clubs managed to make a pre-tax profit despite the Premier League clubs’ combined revenue of £2 billion. This is in large part due to the failure of clubs to control costs. The appointment and subsequent dismissal of the wrong manager can be extremely costly as managers are entitled to compensation if their contracts are terminated early.

“It is widely believed that rich teams can buy success. However, our method is a big step forward as for the first time we are able to identify whether the number of points per game secured by the manager is due to the characteristics of the team or managerial skill.”

The team’s paper, The Performance of Football Club Managers: Skill or Luck?, was published online last month (http://ssrn.com/abstract=1962574).

It can only be a matter of time before the model is applied to managers of rugby and cricket sides and hopefully the hirings and firings can be more consistent.

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A true story from Mount Isa in Queensland: A routine police patrol car was parked outside a local neighbourhood pub late in the evening. The officer noticed a man leaving the bar so intoxicated that he could barely walk.

The man stumbled around the car park for a few minutes, with the officer quietly observing. After what seemed an eternity and trying his keys on five vehicles. The man managed to find his car, which he fell into. He was there for a few minutes as a number of other patrons left the bar and drove off. Finally he started the car, switched the wipers on and off (it was a fine dry night). Then flicked the indicators on, then off, tooted the horn and then switched on the lights.

He moved the vehicle forward a few metres, reversed a little and then remained stationary for a few more minutes as some more vehicles left. At last he pulled out of the car park and started to drive slowly down the road.

The police officer, having patiently waited all this time, now started up the patrol car, put on the flashing lights, promptly pulled the man over and carried out a breathalyser test.

To his amazement the breathalyser indicated no evidence of intoxication.

The police officer said “I’ll have to ask you to accompany me to the police station – this breathalyser equipment must be broken.”

“I doubt it,” said the man, “tonight I’m the designated decoy.”